Earnings are arguably the most important single number on a company's quarterly financial report. Wall Street clearly dives into all of the other metrics and management's input, but the EPS figure helps cut through all the noise.

The earnings figure itself is key, of course, but a beat or miss on the bottom line can sometimes be just as, if not more, important. Therefore, investors should consider paying close attention to these earnings surprises, as a big beat can help a stock climb and vice versa.

Now that we know how important earnings and earnings surprises are, it's time to show investors how to take advantage of these events to boost their returns by utilizing the Zacks Earnings ESP filter.

The Zacks Earnings ESP, Explained

The Zacks Earnings ESP is more formally known as the Expected Surprise Prediction, and it aims to grab the inside track on the latest analyst estimate revisions ahead of a company's report. The idea is relatively intuitive as a newer projection might be based on more complete information.

With this in mind, the Expected Surprise Prediction compares the Most Accurate Estimate (being the most recent) against the overall Zacks Consensus Estimate. The percentage difference provides the ESP figure. The system also utilizes our core Zacks Rank to provide a stronger system for identifying stocks that might beat their next quarterly earnings estimate and possibly see the stock price climb.

Bringing together a positive earnings ESP alongside a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better has helped stocks report a positive earnings surprise 70% of the time. Furthermore, by using these parameters, investors have seen 28.3% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.

Stocks with a #3 (Hold) ranking, which is most stocks covered at 60%, are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. But stocks that fall into the #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy) ranking, or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market. Strong Buy stocks should outperform more than any other rank.

Should You Consider Alaska Air Group?

Now that we understand what the ESP is and how beneficial it can be, let's dive into a stock that currently fits the bill. Alaska Air Group (ALK Quick QuoteALK - Free Report) earns a #3 (Hold) right now and its Most Accurate Estimate sits at $0.60 a share, just 24 days from its upcoming earnings release on October 22, 2026.

ALK has an Earnings ESP figure of +24.35%, which, as explained above, is calculated by taking the percentage difference between the $0.60 Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.48. Alaska Air Group is one of a large database of stocks with positive ESPs. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.

ALK is one of just a large database of Transportation stocks with positive ESPs. Another solid-looking stock is International Seaways (INSW Quick QuoteINSW - Free Report) .

International Seaways, which is readying to report earnings on November 5, 2026, sits at a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) right now. Its Most Accurate Estimate is currently $4.09 a share, and INSW is 38 days out from its next earnings report.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for International Seaways is $3.09, and when you take the percentage difference between that number and its Most Accurate Estimate, you get the Earnings ESP figure of +32.61%.

ALK and INSW's positive ESP metrics may signal that a positive earnings surprise for both stocks is on the horizon.

Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported

Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>